Predictors of the early 5-year course of schizophrenia: a path analysis.

In this study, the effect of 19 possible predictor variables on 4 outcome variables was analyzed in young patients with recent-onset schizophrenia and related disorders (n = 64). Patients who participated in a 15-month intervention program were stratified into low and high parental expressed emotion and randomized over two intervention conditions: standard intervention and standard plus family intervention. Baseline variables were measured during the intervention. Outcome variables were measured over 5 years after discharge and comprised duration of psychotic episodes, living institutions for psychiatric patients, structural activities, and help from the family. From the 19 baseline variables, 6 had possible predictive value and were entered in a multivariate analysis. The resulting path model indicated that the score on the Strauss and Carpenter prognostic scale was predictive for duration of psychotic episodes. Diagnosis (schizophrenia vs. schizophrenia-related disorder) predicted help from the family. Age at first psychotic episode predicted living in institutions for psychiatric patients. Duration of psychotic episodes was associated with living in institutions for psychiatric patients and with help from the family but not with structural activities.